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News » Don't let weather forecasts throw you off your game


Don't let weather forecasts throw you off your game


Don't let weather forecasts throw you off your game
There is an exact formula for calculating the effects of weather on the statistical performance of NFL players. Unfortunately, no one knows what it is.


Last Sunday there was snow falling and winds gusting in Green Bay. Does that mean the Packers stuck to "3 yards and a cloud of powder" and ran the ball all day against the Carolina Panthers? Not exactly. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was 29 of 45 passing for 298 yards with three touchdowns in the Pack's 35-31 loss to the Panthers.

There was rain and high wind in Cleveland, where the Browns hosted Indianapolis. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning attempted just 21 passes -- 17 below his average -- in a 10-6 Colts victory that was duller than the score indicated. Must have been the weather.

There was a steady rain falling in the Meadowlands, where the New York Jets hosted the Denver Broncos. The deluge did not seem to bother Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler, who threw for 357 yards and two touchdowns in the Broncos' 34-17 win over Brett Favre's Jets.

There was a tornado warning posted in Tampa last weekend. Heavy rains may have contributed to New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees throwing three interceptions in the Buccaneers' 23-20 win over the Saints. Brees and Bucs QB Jeff Garcia completed just 48 percent of their passes combined.

Still, Brees is a fantasy stud and you wouldn't bench him unless he shot himself in a nightclub or something. He still amassed 296 passing yards and two touchdowns. I'll take that kind of wallowing in the mire anytime from my quarterback.

Was last Sunday's messy weather in Orchard Park to blame for Rian Lindell's misses from 20 and 40 yards in the Buffalo Bills' loss to San Francisco? Lindell refused to blame the elements, and let's face it, he does play seven to eight home games a year in the windy confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The point is, the weather is just one more thing for fantasy owners to obsess about. But it's not the factor that it is in baseball, where games are rained out. (See George Carlin's "The Differences Between Baseball and Football.")

If you want to really torture yourself, check out Weather.com's forecastpage for NFL cities (http://www.-weather.com/outlook/events/ NFL/-schedule).

Then start over-thinking. Sunday's high in Green Bay is supposed to be 17 degrees, with a 10 percent chance of snow. Does that mean forget about Texans quarterback Matt Schaub in his first game back from injury? What about receiver Andre Johnson? Surely Texans running back Steve Slaton is a safer play.

The best weather advice we know of is if you've got a choice of decent place-kickers, pick the one who is playing indoors. This week that includes Rian Lindell of Buffalo . The Bills play Miami inside Toronto's Rogers Centre, where they'll have the roof closed. The Dolphins' kicker is Dan Carpenter.

Other kickers working indoors this weekend include:

Atlanta's Jason Elam, New Orleans' Garrett Hartley, Cincinnati's Shayne Graham, Indianapolis' Adam Vinatieri, Minnesota's Ryan Longwell and Detroit's Jason Hanson.

-----

>The Williams Wall

I'm not impugning anyone's motives -- well, actually I am -- but perhaps there is a fantasy angle in the decision by a Minnesota judge to issue a temporary restraining order blocking the suspensions of Vikings defensive linemen Kevin and Pat Williams.

The Williamses were among six NFL players suspended for the rest of the regular season for violations of the league's anti-doping rules.

Kevin and Pat Williams put the stout into "stout against the run" for the Vikings, who have the second-stingiest run defense in the league.

Has anyone investigated whether Hennepin County District Judge Gary Larson is a fantasy Football owner whose playoff opponent uses Lions running back Kevin Smith in his roster? It certainly would be a bonus to Smith (and those depending on him) if the "Williams Wall" was off the field on Sunday.

There could be a similar fantasy dividend for Arizona's Tim Hightower and Atlanta's Michael Turner, the Vikings' opponents in Weeks 15 and 16.

e-mail: gconnors@buffnews.com

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>Going Up

Denver RB Peyton Hillis: The Broncos' new featured back has four touchdowns in his past three games. He burned the Jets for 129 yards last week, and this week faces the defense-challenged Chiefs.

Vikings WR Bernard Berrian: Nothing like a 99-yard touchdown reception to recharge the batteries. That play helped Berrian burn the Bears for 122 yards on four catches. In his first meeting with the Lions this year Berrian had five catches for 131 yards and a score.

>Going DOWN

Browns WR Braylon Edwards: His mediocre season (58-yard average in 12 games, three TDs) isn't going to get any better with Ken Dorsey as his starting quarterback and tight end Kellen Winslow out of action. And, the Titans are fourth in pass defense.

Dolphins TE Anthony Fasano: Yes, he did catch a touchdown pass against the Bills in their first meeting, but that was in Week Eight and he hasn't scored since. He's no longer among Chad Pennington's go-to guys.



Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: December 6, 2008

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